Sunday 3 November 2013

How come Private banks posted Good quarter 2 numbers despite of Rupee woes

Because of rupee depreciation every one had sell call on banks and as a result Bank index touched lows which gave a opinion that good days for banks are gone and everyone took short positions,but to surprise Bank index started moving up and some banks even posted good numbers,how did it happen?? here goes the story. As one-off measure the reserve bank of india had allowed banks to move statuatory liquidity ratio {slr} securities such as government and corporate bonds,to the hold-till-maturity{HTM} from the availablefor sale/held for trading {AFS/HFT} categories. And gave them option to spread their mark-to-market losses {MTM,writting down assets on the basis of current values} on these securities over the next three or seven quarters ,thereby minimising the impact on their financials.The move was to enable banks to avoid huge losses on their AFS portfolio,as yeilds have shot up and as a result bond prices had fallen. Compared to a 7.439 per cent yeild to maturity on the 10 year government bond on june 28 the yeild has risen to 8.234 per cent at the end of the september quarter,it is still at those eleveted levels. Banks are required to provide for decline in the value of bonds held under AFS/HFT categories and vice-versa. Had Rbi not permitted banks,the MTM provisions that banks would have to take would have been huge. Experts say a 100 basis points rise in government bond yeild will lead to 33000 crore MTM  provision in a quarter,almost double the first quarter profit of all banks put together ( 19849 crore) or close the half the yearly profit of 2012-13 ( 77045 crore)
Most privtate banks have charged the entire losses to their profit and loss acount,yes bank was least affected with the slr portfolio with only 0.33 crore of loss.
Icici bank said it had made MTM provisions of 289 crore on its investment portfolio and also not availed the option permitted by rbi of recognising these over three quarters,the trabsfer to HTM category is also limited.
Kotak mahindra bank has said it has not transfered any slr securityfrom AFS or HFT to HTM ,it however has choosen to amortise the losses,which has helped in minimising the impact on financials.Two other Indusind bank and Federal bank have also choosen to amortise the losses on their AFS/HFT  portfolio over the next few quarters.Thus most private Banks did better than expected on this lines.

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